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Prediction for CME (2015-09-04T19:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-09-04T19:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9262/-1
CME Note: filament eruption
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-09-08T01:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-09-08T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/9265/1
Model Inputs:
2015-09-04T19:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=-25.0, Speed=325.0, HalfAngle=55.0, Time21.5=2015-09-05T12:47Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2015-09-08T20:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Spitz_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20150905_124700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 50.20 hour(s)
Difference: -18.53 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Alexandra Wold (SWRC) on 2015-09-05T23:16Z

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